* clif note December 2016 ALTA : Divergence...

[WBF Monk]

 

 

 

 

December 2016 ALTA : Divergence...

 

 

 

Note this is a PDF (written) ALTA report in the original format.

The range of this report is from December 2016 through to January 2035.

This report is in the newer, more readable format.

[h=2]Pricing is a small $15 (US dollars).[/h]

 

 

To purchase the ALTA Report ->

 

 

[WBF Monk]

Meta data

 

In this work, we are studying what is called 'nonlinearities' by scientists. These nonlinearities express themselves within the work in the form of a jump from one presumed apparent track for the data progression in modelspace to another with no motivation for the jump being provided by the software. Meaning that the nonlinearities being expressed are within the data sets. As the data sets are placed intomodelspace, your eye follows data blobs as they build and grow much like life, which is to say, in a writhing, organic flowing manner that continuously tricks the mind into thinking the track currently within vision, will continue that way. It never does. The rate at which nonlinearities appear in modelspace moves very much like a deep tide dispersing debris in ways not like the day before, and certainly nothing like the day that will follow. Some years have large levels of nonlinearities spread evenly, more or less, throughout the year, while others have theirs clumped into mind-shaking bursts.

 

In the interpretations of our data over the years it has become apparent at a meta data level that the ebb and flow of the nonlinearities within modelspace are their own form of forecasting medium. They provide a general 'tone from universe', or alternatively, a 'flavor of the days (times)'. By this metric, our next year is being shown as having both clumps and a steady progression of nonlinearities. This 'floor' level of the nonlinearities is going to be both steady and mind numbing. The clumps of nonlinearities will be so exhilarating that people will find themselves in 'absolute daze' and 'wondering who am I?' and 'what world am I on?'.

 

The data, as it is presented now, does not show any slowing of the pace of the non-linearity appearances over all of 2017.

 

Many of the non-linearity sets are within the meta data layer of 'secrets revealed'. The data accretion patterns are not only saying that the global population will be flooded with new information as the old systems break down, but also that the subjects to be revealed within the flood are to be so deeply affecting as to alter the emotional tone of the population.

 

Please note that a very major, long term forecast from 2003/2004 is shaping up now. In that forecast, the DOW was indicated to be just about to touch 20,000 when the financial world was described as 'coming undone'. The temporal marker of the DOW index reaching 20,000 appears in the data about 4/four months ahead of silver reaching a 'world spot price' of '$125 (one hundred twenty five dollars US)' to the ounce. As we are approaching a reality that is manifesting in a similar manner, we may be within a short period of these forecast events also manifesting.

[SumDumGuy]

So, the data non-linearities are saying that there is going to be a continuous stream of mind numbing events in this coming year. That many of these non-linearity sets are in the 'secrets revealed' meme is a good thing in my estimation.

 

Shine that light upon those dark places so that the corrupt can no longer hide there.

 

Keep an eye on the DOW. When it comes within arms length of 20K, it may be time to get certain things in place.

[Peter]

Hmmm... we know their voo doo is based upon the Bible. They are dead set on following the script. It seems that we might consider giving it some credence.

 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-forgive-at-least-108-billion-in-student-debt-in-coming-years-1480501802

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11383374/The-biggest-debt-write-offs-in-the-history-of-the-world.html

 

Money [debt] is an illusion, albeit a very persistent one.

[michaelj]

I think it was in an interview because I can't find it in any of my reports but I remember Clif saying the action in North Dakota at the pipe line "Will calm down this winter and then pick up in February" He was talking about it being a marker of other failures in the Gov.

[h=1]Standing Rock Sioux Chairman calls for water protectors to return home[/h]Does anyone else recall this?

[Greenmeadow]

You are correct. It was in the Nov Webbot forum interview.

[SumDumGuy]

So, the data non-linearities are saying that there is going to be a continuous stream of mind numbing events in this coming year. That many of these non-linearity sets are in the 'secrets revealed' meme is a good thing in my estimation.

 

Shine that light upon those dark places so that the corrupt can no longer hide there.

 

Keep an eye on the DOW. When it comes within arms length of 20K, it may be time to get certain things in place.

 

Have we reached arms length of the DOW?

[Rhealady]

RE: Energy shortage

I posted this question to Clif on Twitter, but he did not answer. Maybe one of you can get a response.

 

My husband sells used biodiesel and ethanol plants and equipment systems. That sector has been in a depression since the oil prices have gone down. He is also starting a used equipment business for the petroleum industry, so he knows the weakness in that sector also from oversupply.

 

I am having a hard time parsing this extreme energy shortage with today's energy surplus.

 

Does this energy shortage arise because of global shortages or is it because the US has to pay its bills with anything it can, including food and energy?

If this is true, it only makes sense that China, who is heavily invested in our agriculture, would make sure that their US farms have the energy to produce for export to China.

 

What is the timing on this energy shortage? We just don't see it happening any time soon.

China.

[ChiliCheeseFries]

RE: Energy shortage

 

I am having a hard time parsing this extreme energy shortage with today's energy surplus.

 

Does this energy shortage arise because of global shortages or is it because the US has to pay its bills with anything it can, including food and energy?

If this is true, it only makes sense that China, who is heavily invested in our agriculture, would make sure that their US farms have the energy to produce for export to China.

 

What is the timing on this energy shortage? We just don't see it happening any time soon.

China.

 

^^^This^^^

 

One of the reasons that a country experiences material and food shortages in a hyperinflation is because external creditors exchange the depreciating fiat for real goods which are exported out of the economy faster than can be produced internally.

 

If at all possible consider oil sunflower seed cropping and oil production, which can be methylated using that equipment to produce diesel. Also scrap catalytic converters whose inner ceramic cores (impregnated with platinum and paladium) can be used to make small scale catalytic oil crackers. Waste plastic can also be cracked into liquid fuels using carbon dust and microwave heating apparatus.

 

Most fuel will be exported and what fuel remains will be used to grow food crops.

[ChiliCheeseFries]

Have we reached arms length of the DOW?

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/chart

 

Yeah, I'd say we are within a cubit and 2 to 4 days of your reference point. Recalling that 10th Dec "something happens", and 12th Dec starts the first of the fireworks show. IIRC FED decides on rates adjustment and Willie relates the comments of EuroRaj who believes the FED has to raise (95% chance according to the leading indicators cited), and Draghi just indicated a tightening of bond purchases which strengthened the Euro but also goosed interest rates. We are definitely at a turning point.

[amarynth]

If at all possible consider oil sunflower seed cropping and oil production, which can be methylated using that equipment to produce diesel. Also scrap catalytic converters whose inner ceramic cores (impregnated with platinum and paladium) can be used to make small scale catalytic oil crackers. Waste plastic can also be cracked into liquid fuels using carbon dust and microwave heating apparatus.

 

Most fuel will be exported and what fuel remains will be used to grow food crops.

 

Yes, all the rest, but do not use good food crops (sunflower oil) to make food crops. Something goes really wrong if one does that.

[ChiliCheeseFries]

Tractors need to be fed too.

[amarynth]

Use oil crops, not food crops. Jatropha comes to mind. CCF, you can work the numbers if you use good food crops to grow food crops. There is also a whole other sphere here, using food land to grow oil crops to feed tractors to grow food crops. It is not working now. So, there is a whole change and rethinking necessary in the agricultural sphere.

 

Will put more comments on the other side of the wall.

[ChiliCheeseFries]

Jatropha: About 95% of the jatropha cultivation is found in the land where the annual rainfall is above 900 mm and annual temperature range of about 20 to 27 degree Celsius.

 

Not quite my AO. Got anything like that which will overwinter at --20F??

[amarynth]

There is not a viable alternative to fossil fuels in large enough qtys. If you talk about agriculture, methane is a scale-able alternative to put in the tractor to gas it up. Many commercial farms are being run on methane with their own methane plants and equipment and vehicles having been changed over for this specifically. Then the oil component decreases significantly. But immediately the concept of methane can be challenged. There is not an easy answer, yet. I get worried about using food lands for making oils and bio-diesels. Wonderful thing yes on the short term ... but I think we have a way to go as humanity to get to energy abundance. Perhaps your area can grow the rapes that rape seed oil is made of ... the canola stuff. That stuff we should not really eat, so feel free, put it in your tractor lol.

 

Biodiesel can be used for smaller qtys very effectively. But growing specifically for biodiesel takes away productive food lands, no matter which crop you select. And no matter which crop you select, you run into scale and economics problems soon. Ever checked out what good and pure sunflower oil for consumption and not mixed with other carrier oils costs these days? I cannot even find it any longer at a price that is acceptable. We press our own because in our climate, olives don't grow.

 

The Op is asking about shortage of energy. I really do not follow Clif specifically on this, so perhaps someone else can help answer the question.

[ChiliCheeseFries]

At a certain point its about getting something done to feed your family and the folks who are working to make extra food for others. Sunflower is half wild and can grow in places where other crops do not do well. After the oil press the meal is used to feed chickens, cows, etc. 1 acre of sunflower here will yield 85 gallons of oil. A small diesel tractor, used judiciously, will not use half that to cultivate 10 acres for a year. I understand the economics of it, believe me. Vast corporate farms are going to collapse without the oil flowing to them. In this scenario we are talking about very local production including local energy production to feed local people as much as possible, probably for 3-5 years while the agricultural infrastructure is rebuilt.

[amarynth]

In this scenario we are talking about very local production including local energy production to feed local people as much as possible, probably for 3-5 years while the agricultural infrastructure is rebuilt.

 

In that scenario we have no differences. Many times in a smaller local scale things work, where in a huge industrial scale they do not in the sense of being good for ordinary people.

[equanimity]

Remember what we chatted about in the Gardening thread, that once a right-scale permaculture food forest (or network of forests) is established within a watershed, the next challenge is to keep the food-producer's and the grocer's economy from collapsing, because suddenly there's less need for row and field crops. Isn't that the sense we were talking at that time? So what's wrong with the idea that the farmer converts some of his land to various kind of biomass harvest?

 

Part of the solution is, small is beautiful. Scale down and engage everybody, rather than scaling up and engaging only specialists, (thus stealing the experience from everybody else). In a village that was designed to have food forest paths and lanes linking the houses and the common spaces together, the artificial line between food garden and pleasure garden goes away, doesn't it, amaranth? You aren't so much "gardening" as you are "furnishing" or "decorating" the land, setting it up to produce it's own natural joy in the commingled spaces, rather than off in some ghetto called "garden", right? Once the food forest is in place, then things like coppicing, fuel farming, carbon farming, recycling through compost-making, all the rest can be embedded in the landscape according to what the landscape offers. Many permaculture designs include fuel farming and carbon farming as part of their rotation, but of course the scale is everything.

 

Nothing would bar trades with neighboring regions either. Maybe one region or sub-region would be best for making firewood, whereas another has only marginal or steep or low-fertility soils, suitable only for a specialized rotation like herb cropping or oil cropping. Eventually it would be worked out how resources are to be distributed.

 

The problem is, we need a new and comprehensive vision, a city-sized blueprint addressing all the interrelated ways a community of various sizes can create its own resources. The blueprint would need to include local energy sources, appropriate technologies, traditional techniques, open source inventions, best practices toward habitat and resource managements, grey and blackwater disposal and recycling, yada yada etc. Each region would need to have it's own scalable models to help guide new enterprises and retrofits. This could be an evolutionary contest or race to see how many types of such integrated societies could be designed for each region.

 

This is how Renaissance Italy worked. Each city was its own state, with it's own form of government, currency, laws and customs. They might have shared foundations in the Classics, the Abrahamic religions, plus the use of gold and silver for currency. But each little principality did things their own way, and this allowed for a lot of social and entrepreneurial experimentation. I have a sense that, if the Borg retreats and allows the USA to fall into regional sectors with their own economies, this is what we will be seeing across the land -- county-sized parcels occupied by cosortia and confederations of self-organized entrepreneurial pods.

 

Wouldn't that be fun?

[Joy in Hawaii]

Please send this to President-elect Trump or Mr. Bannon. Our ideas are being requested and this would be of great help to the new administration as to which way we go.

 

We wanted change. Let's make them aware of what changes we want!

[equanimity]

Sure, once the conversation develops. I want to hear back from amaranth first. I know she's thinking things I would never know to ask.

[amarynth]

The problem is, we need a new and comprehensive vision, a city-sized blueprint addressing all the interrelated ways a community of various sizes can create its own resources. The blueprint would need to include local energy sources, appropriate technologies, traditional techniques, open source inventions, best practices toward habitat and resource managements, grey and blackwater disposal and recycling, yada yada etc. Each region would need to have it's own scalable models to help guide new enterprises and retrofits. This could be an evolutionary contest or race to see how many types of such integrated societies could be designed for each region.

 

There is one such a community that has grown tremendously over the past 50 or so years.

 

https://ukiahcommunityblog.wordpress.com/2010/03/22/mondragon-the-loving-society-that-is-our-inevitable-future/

https://foodfirst.org/basque-country-2015/

http://www.beginningfarmers.org/mondragon-permaculture-cooperative/

 

The Mondragon Cooperative has grown from its lowly start by a visionary priest arranging soccer matches for people broken by war to not only a teaching model of a real successful agricultural and food coop, but has grown to the biggest cooperative business in the world, worker owned (those words will kick up some hackles).

 

http://www.mondragon-corporation.com/eng/

 

In such a food and business driven society the dividing lines between food producer and food consumer disappear, because it is one initiative. We eat what we grow and we make or trade for what we need and within the cooperative structure, we run our own business. I designed such a society somewhere in the beginning of this year for a very specific societal representative group of emigrants/immigrants. It was astounding. Those will skills and trades got it. The carpenters, the beekeepers, the builders, the chefs, the cooks etc., they got it. Those with higher degrees, did not get it. The doctors, the lawyers, the big business farmers, the chemists, they did not get it.

 

So, the design is possible. Mondragon teaches us that the concept is possible even scaled up to the largest cooperative owned group of businesses in the world. The lifestyle is possible. The development is possible. The retrofits are possible. As the one article says: "The Loving Society That Is Our Inevitable Future"

 

The initial work has been done. There are blueprints, there are adaptive designs done by visionaries. It remains to teach every city planner permaculture design principles as part of their training and most importantly, convince the community or seek out only those communities that are able to conceptualize a cooperative initiative and cooperative ownership of such an initiative. This is where the concept falls apart for most Westerners. They cannot conceive of that because we learned that we all are entitled to owning our own piece of dirt and I'll plant my daisies on my own piece of dirt and to hell with the rest. Integration, integrative design, cooperative sharing and comprehensive approach? aah no, that stuff is for those commies over there lol.

 

My thinking is that the visionaries among us will naturally fall into such arrangements and slowly start changing over their own communities. I cannot see the world changing. There is a cry out for integrative and loving communities from a West that is poverty stricken in community values, but the will is not there in a large enough measure yet. Somehow the Latins and the Easterners fall into this much easier, a cooperative approach being part of their social structure already. One cannot do this alone. One cannot change over your community as a solo artist. There was only one Masanobu Fukuoka, of The One-Straw Revolution fame.

[acrabbe]

What's up folks...

 

As a trader and investor I pay close attention to the Markets aspect of the ALTA reports. Looks like things should be kicking off this coming week if the report is correct in its timing. My big question is the viability of the markets and whether they will remain open while all of this currency and banking turmoil is going on. Or, in other words, how fast will this crisis go bad? My concern is that I won't have the chance to withdraw cash from my brokerage account and turn it into real assets before the entire credit system totally freezes up and my brokerage account is either confiscated by the custodian bank (Citibank) or the actual exchanges declare force majeure and halt operations and shut down. Obviously the goal here is to profit, withdraw and exchange the less valuable dollars for real assets like land, phys precious metals, food, petrol, etc....

 

Has anyone else done any thinking on this? From what I can tell from the reports the system stays somewhat viable until late summer. Should be enough time for me to totally cash out.

[dave-0]

I have wondered about this also. My assessment is that the first brokerages to go are those that have played the fractional share game-that is,, they give you credit for the shares you supposedly own, but only if they can get any when SHTF. More conservative brokerages like scottrade and computer share go to greater lengths to ensure there are enough shares to go around. Kind of like banks vs credit unions. Most credit unions will survive, but big banks won't because of fractional reserve lending. My advice is to hold. 10 percent or more of your wealth in physical hard assets. If you have doubts about market activity then sell and keep the cash handy or in a local bank or credit union.

[emocmo]

What's up folks...

 

As a trader and investor I pay close attention to the Markets aspect of the ALTA reports. Looks like things should be kicking off this coming week if the report is correct in its timing. My big question is the viability of the markets and whether they will remain open while all of this currency and banking turmoil is going on. Or, in other words, how fast will this crisis go bad? My concern is that I won't have the chance to withdraw cash from my brokerage account and turn it into real assets before the entire credit system totally freezes up and my brokerage account is either confiscated by the custodian bank (Citibank) or the actual exchanges declare force majeure and halt operations and shut down. Obviously the goal here is to profit, withdraw and exchange the less valuable dollars for real assets like land, phys precious metals, food, petrol, etc....

 

Has anyone else done any thinking on this? From what I can tell from the reports the system stays somewhat viable until late summer. Should be enough time for me to totally cash out.

 

based on my experience in Risk Management at a regionally well known retail bank, I can assure you there are contingency plans for everything. If the crisis goes bad quickly, the government, the fed and banks will pull the binder off the shelf and a few people can execute the process in minutes. Not days, not hours. Since everything is networked, runs on banks (in the old fashioned meaning of the word) are unlikely.

 

It is wise to keep enough cash around to last a while. By the time YOU see it coming, you are racing with the guys in a THAT board room.

[ChiliCheeseFries]

The reports and clif's interps tend to compress the 3 weeks-3 months period into one vision plane much like a photo with an infinite depth of field. Everything looks like it will all happen at once in spectacular fashion, when in fact as we move in and through the period the events or language accordion out from our experience. So, recognize that pattern we have seen repeated over many years.

 

In the audio conference between Clif, and two other alt-views guys (20 Nov) Clif mentioned that he has changed his "tuning" methology so that some of the partially processed data have their timing related qualities adjusted to compensate for how those individual groupings appear to play out vs how the read expresses what will come along and when. This has increased his timing accuracy a great deal.

 

These "markets" are dominated by politics and we have seen how surprises in those realms have triggered drastic price level changes as well as trending changes. With the wave of populist sentiment sweeping the world IMO there will be many more exogenous events which well could tip over many apple carts. The FED will do anything and everything it can to keep the current international system afloat. Right now there is a dollar liquidity crisis in process as well as a dollar denominated debt repayment crisis in process. IMO those engines will drive a great deal of market action until the dollar breaks down.

 

30 yr mortage rates are now over 4.3% which is a death knell for residential real estate and the rest of the FIRE sectors. I expect a derivatives events or ten which will be dealt with by voiding of the contracts due to "systemic risk". If that happens then interest rates will jump like mad to compensate for risk exposure which has to be repriced back into the end product costs. = death of the economic engine